A few months ago, I posted about my new metric for playoff success: wins per 16. One of the flaws I noticed, however, was that a Cup win in 2007 is worth the same as a cup win in 2015, even though most if not all of each NHL team's rosters in 2006-07 have changed drastically. For the example, the Cup-winning 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks only have two players that are still with the Ducks today.
So, I thought I could use a system where the value of playoff wins decreases the farther back in time you get. What I eventually came up with was this: playoff wins are weighted as such:
9 seasons ago = (1/9) * playoff wins
8 seasons ago = (1/8) * playoff wins
7 seasons ago = (1/7) * playoff wins
. . . and so on.
This means that instead dividing a team's weighted playoff wins by 16 times the number of seasons in the sample (in this case, 144). Instead, the team's weighted playoff wins will be divided by 45.2634920635, the sum of (1/9)*16+(1/8)*16+(1/7)*16+(1/6)*16+(1/5)*16+(1/4)*16+(1/3)*16+(1/2)*16+16.
That way, recent Cup wins matter more than less recent Cup wins.
The five top teams in Adjusted Wp16 since 2006-07 are as follows:
** What separates Winnipeg and Edmonton is that while Edmonton has never made the playoffs in the past nine years, Winnipeg has twice - in 2007 as the Atlanta Thrashers and in 2015, but got swept both times.
NOTES
So, I thought I could use a system where the value of playoff wins decreases the farther back in time you get. What I eventually came up with was this: playoff wins are weighted as such:
9 seasons ago = (1/9) * playoff wins
8 seasons ago = (1/8) * playoff wins
7 seasons ago = (1/7) * playoff wins
. . . and so on.
This means that instead dividing a team's weighted playoff wins by 16 times the number of seasons in the sample (in this case, 144). Instead, the team's weighted playoff wins will be divided by 45.2634920635, the sum of (1/9)*16+(1/8)*16+(1/7)*16+(1/6)*16+(1/5)*16+(1/4)*16+(1/3)*16+(1/2)*16+16.
That way, recent Cup wins matter more than less recent Cup wins.
The five top teams in Adjusted Wp16 since 2006-07 are as follows:
- Chicago Blackhawks, 70.224
- New York Rangers, 52.110
- Anaheim Ducks, 41.817
- Tampa Bay Lightning, 36.281
- Los Angeles Kings, 34.759
- Edmonton Oilers, 0.000**
- Winnipeg Jets*, 0.000**
- Florida Panthers, 1.657
- Columbus Blue Jackets, 2.209
- Carolina Hurricanes, 2.525
** What separates Winnipeg and Edmonton is that while Edmonton has never made the playoffs in the past nine years, Winnipeg has twice - in 2007 as the Atlanta Thrashers and in 2015, but got swept both times.
NOTES
- The Blackhawks have been stunningly dominant in the playoffs. Their Wp16 has risen from an already impressive 50.694 to an incredible 70.224. Not 1980s Edmonton Oilers good, but surprisingly close (the Oilers' Wp16 from 1983 to 1990 is 79.894).
- In a distant second are the New York Rangers, with an astounding 52.110.
- The truly elite teams typically have an adjusted Wp16 of above 35. Only the Blackhawks, Rangers, Ducks and Lightning are above this threshold. Though the Kings (34.759 Adj. Wp16) and to a lesser extent, the Bruins (32.384 Adj. Wp16) are close.
- Tampa Bay his risen from 12th in the Unadjusted Wp16 ranking to 4th in adjusted Wp16, but on other side of the coin, the Red Wings, Penguins, and Stars have all fallen by six or more places in the rankings.