Every scouting report I could find said that his ceiling as an NHL player was as a bottom-six grinder. What's the point of taking a third-liner with a first-round pick? On purpose? Yes, you read right. The Bruins didn't think that Trent Frederic had some untapped potential to become a potent sniper at the highest level. They knew that he would most likely be a bottom-six player, and they took him anyways. That's not to say that a team doesn't need bottom-six players, or even that the Bruins couldn't use a decent player on their third or fourth line. But this pick reveals deeper problems in the way that the Bruins management. For those too lazy to click the link above, here is they key quote from Keith Gretzky, the Bruins' director of amateur scouting, as told to Steve Conroy in this article.
Trent Frederic lines up to take a faceoff with the USNTDP. Photo credit: Tom Sorensen, USNTDP After the solid selection of Charlie McAvoy with the 14th pick, Don Sweeney and his scouts did what everyone expected them to: they made a controversial (to put it kindly) draft pick. Trent Frederic was a third-line grinder with the US National Team Development Program (USNTDP), and most rankings had him going in the middle of the second round, with some pundits rating him as an early third-rounder.
Every scouting report I could find said that his ceiling as an NHL player was as a bottom-six grinder. What's the point of taking a third-liner with a first-round pick? On purpose? Yes, you read right. The Bruins didn't think that Trent Frederic had some untapped potential to become a potent sniper at the highest level. They knew that he would most likely be a bottom-six player, and they took him anyways. That's not to say that a team doesn't need bottom-six players, or even that the Bruins couldn't use a decent player on their third or fourth line. But this pick reveals deeper problems in the way that the Bruins management. For those too lazy to click the link above, here is they key quote from Keith Gretzky, the Bruins' director of amateur scouting, as told to Steve Conroy in this article.
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Jesse Puljujarvi unloads a quick wrist shot. Photo credit: Association of Photographers. On Day One of the Draft, the Columbus Blue Jackets decided to pick Pierre-Luc Dubois, a big, two-way forward hailing from the tiny town of Ste-Agathe-des-Monts, instead of Jesse Puljujarvi, a Finnish forward who was considered the consensus third pick. Puljujarvi was eventually snapped up by the Oilers at 4th. The decision was so surprising* that Puljujarvi himself couldn't control his reaction. Literally every prospect ranking on the Internet had him ranked third behind Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine.
In the end, Puljujarvi only fell one spot in the draft, but his drop was still one of the most unexpected in the draft. How much did going from third to fourth overall cost Puljujarvi? It's impossible to know for sure until both he and Dubois sign with the teams that drafted them, but we can still take a guess. Third overall picks have higher base salaries per year and a higher signing bonus. In addition, they also have the opportunity earn more money in performance bonuses. From 2010 to 2015, the average third overall pick will earn $909,271 per year as a base salary with an $80,521 signing bonus. They also can earn up to $2,063,542 in performance bonuses. An average fourth overall pick, however, will have a base salary of $906,035 per year with a $78,313 signing bonus, and they can earn up to $1,242,292. Factoring out signing bonuses, third overall picks will earn $5,444 more than fourth overall picks, and they have the opportunity to earn about 821,250 in performance bonuses. In total, third overall picks make up to $826,694 more than fourth overall picks. There's also the added cost that Puljujarvi has to spend at least the first few years of his career with the Oilers. I know I haven't posted in a while, but I've found the time to create a fun new visualization: scoring depth charts. Scoring depth charts involve a colour scale based on primary points per 60 minutes (P160) and line combos. For example, here are scoring depth charts for Pittsburgh and San Jose in the playoffs*, along with the scale. I'll be playing around some more with this in the offseason, so there will probably be a few more posts about this soon. Thanks for checking it out!
Hello. So, I know I haven't posted on my blog for a while, and that's because of two reasons: The first is writer's block, and the second is this: I've started a new project: The Hasek Roll. The Hasek Roll is a new digital magazine focused on quality writing and compelling imagery.
I'll still be updating this blog regularly, and hopefully I can have a real article up here soon. Don Sweeney during his playing career with the Bruins. Photo credit: Jonathan Hayward, The Canadian Press With a 3-1 win over the Penguins, the Flyers officially put the final nail in the Bruins' coffin, eliminating them from playoff contention. As the Bruins players worry about their new contracts or play golf while 16 teams battle it out for the Stanley Cup, GM Don Sweeney will have several things on his mind - first of all, keeping his job, but second of all, updating the Bruins' roster and staff. Here are three things that Don Sweeney needs to figure out during the offseason. NUMBER ONE: LOUI ERIKSSON - TO SIGN OR NOT TO SIGN? Loui Eriksson walks to the ice for a morning skate. Photo credit: Steven Babineau, NHLI via Getty Images Loui Eriksson has scored 30 goals for the first time in his career at the most opportune of times: his contract year. While Loui Eriksson isn't totally irreplaceable, he is a key piece of the Bruins forward corps. Ultimately, however, he may be more trouble than it's worth to sign. His unsustainably high shooting percentage of 16.3% (his career average is 13.9%) could be considered the main contributing factor to his gaudy statistics, but even without the benefits of his lucky shooting percentage, he's still a good bet for 20-25 goals. For example, had hemade 13.9% of his 184 shots this season; he would have scored 26 goals. But 30 goals sounds a lot better than 26, so it may drive up his contract value. Verdict: The Bruins may actually be better off letting Eriksson go. There are plenty of free-agent right wings, like former Bruin Jaromir Jagr, Shane Doan, Troy Brouwer, or even AHL scorer Mike Sislo, who could become a productive player at the next level if given a proper opportunity. NUMBER TWO: WHO IS THE 2016-17 BRUINS COACH? Claude Julien after being granted a contract extension. Photo credit: Bill Sikes, AP Photo. We've heard it every year, especially recently - Claude Julien is on the hot seat. But this could actually be the year. His line combos haven't seemed to work this year. Claude mixed and matched his lines, to varying success. The Bergeron-Marchand-Connolly line had a CF% of 55.24%, but the Krejci-Pastrnak-Eriksson line had a CF% of just 49.81%, while his third line of Hayes-Beleskey-Spooner crashed and burned with a CF% of 44.53%. To be fair though, the defence didn't do him any favours. Verdict: The Bruins need to give Julien one more year. If he performs well, he stays on as the Bruins coach, but if he doesn't, the Bruins need to move on. NUMBER THREE: THE DEFENCE Zdeno Chara defends against the Philadephia Flyers during the '15-16 season. Photo credit: Bruce Bennett, Getty Images. Anyone who followed hockey this season would blame the Bruins' defence for the team not making the playoffs. They gave up 42.1 unblocked shots against per 60 minutes, 25th in the league, which could be considered a reason for Tuukka Rask's dip in performance. He hasn't faced more unblocked shot attempts since his 2010-11 - which was his second-worst season in terms of save percentage, by the way. The Bruins definitely need to upgrade their defence. None other than Brian Campbell is available on July 1. Another D-man available on free agency day is the underrated Nikita Nikitin. Check out his HERO chart: He won't fix the Bruins problems, but he's a good player to consider on free agency day. Another way to improve the Bruins' defence is to get a new backup goalie*. Jonas Gustavsson regressed back to earlier form after a good start to the season, with a .908 save percentage in 24 games. Jeremy Smith has a decent resumé in the minors, while Malcolm Subban still has a lot of potential. Just as he was starting to settle in to his role as the undisputed Providence Bruins starter, he fractured his larynx when he took a puck to the throat, taking him out for the season. James Reimer is a free agent this year, but he's ill suited to a backup role. The Bruins are best off replacing Gustavsson from within.
Verdict: The Bruins need to cash in on the free agent market and replace Jonas Gustavsson. The Bruins have several other big problems that they need to solve, but in my opinion, these are the two main ones. * Goaltending may technically be separate from defence, but I'm lumping it in.
Artyom Ivanyuzhenkov was one of the hockey players sent home from the U18 Worlds. Photo credit: MHL.ru.
In case you haven't heard, the entire Russian U18 team waskicked out of the U18 World Championships for doping. Using a drug called Meldonium, more than 140 Russian athletes boosted their performance illegally - including Maria Sharapova. James Mirtle has suggested that the scandal will lead to a drop in the draft stocks of the players sent home.
There were ten players from Russia's new U18 program, which plays in the MHL, the Russian junior league - nine skaters and one goalie. Take a look at all ten players who were sent home and who could become steals in the later rounds: German Rubtsov (C) NHL Combined Rank*: 28 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on June 27, 1998 in Chekhov, Russia Height: 6'2'' Weight: 178 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying Rubtsov plays a strong two-way game who plays the game with intelligence. He can generate scoring chances with his speed and has a knack for finding open space. And once he gets a shot off, there's a good chance it goes in. Statistics
Ivan Kovalev (D)
NHL Combined Rank*: 96 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on April 27, 1998 in Yaroslavl, Russia Height: 6'1'' Weight: 185 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying There is actually nothing on this player. I can't find a single scouting report of him online. From his numbers, I'd guess that he's a big, stay-at-home defenceman who can occasionally chip in on offence. Statistics
Dmitry Alexeyev (D)
NHL Combined Rank*: 105 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on February 17, 1998 in Chelyabinsk, Russia Height: 6'0'' Weight: 191 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying A jack-of-all-trades minute muncher who can skate and pass - though with ten points in 30 games, don't expect much offence from him. He can block off passing routes with his long reach and is known for making smart decisions with the puck. Statistics
Mikhail Maltsev (LW)
NHL Combined Rank*: 109 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on March 12, 1998 in St. Petersburg, Russia Height: 6'3'' Weight: 198 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying As a lot of people like to say, Maltsev has the things you can't teach with a 6-3, 198-pound frame. He can skate, shoot, and move the puck with reasonable skill and can win faceoffs as well, not to mention defence. "Versatile" is how Alessandro Seren-Rosso described him in a Hockey Prospectus article. Statistics
Mikhail Berdin (G)
NHL Combined Rank*: 112 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on March 1, 1998 in Ufa, Russia Height: 6'2'' Weight: 163 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying Berdin uses his solid combination of quick reflexes and technical skills to shut down MHL shooters, with a .928 save percentage in 22 MHL games. He can track the puck with ease and plays a hybrid style. Though he might need to strengthen up, he could be the goaltending steal of the draft. Statistics
Ivan Kosorenkov (RW)
NHL Combined Rank*: 130 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on March 1, 1998 in Ufa, Russia Height: 6'0'' Weight: 181 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying Kosorenkov is a blazing-fast skater with a strong one-timer and great hands. Though Seren-Rosso writes that "he doesn't commit to the defensive side of the game", he's a potential steal for a team needing offence, as his near point-per-game pace shows. Statistics
Alexander Yakovenko (D)
NHL Combined Rank*: 209 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on February 22, 1998 in Karaganda, Kazakhstan Height: 5'10'' Weight: 160 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying The Russian-Kazakh dual citizen is the smallest of any player on this list thus far, but he makes up for it with good skating and a booming, if inaccurate, slapshot. Yakovenko is a great puck-mover who can make good decisions with the puck on his stick. Could be the kind of player with time on the penalty kill at the professional level. Statistics
Artyom Ivanyuzhenkov (LW)
NHL Combined Rank*: 212 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on March 1, 1998 in Ufa, Russia Height: 6'2'' Weight: 212 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying Known as "the Tank", Ivanyuzhenkov really puts the "power" in power forward. He plays a simple game oriented towards a dump-and-chase system and could develop into a solid middle-six player. Statistics
Artur Kayumov (LW)
NHL Combined Rank*: 233 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on February 14, 1998 in Podgorny, Russia Height: 5'10'' Weight: 154 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying The undersized but offensively talented forward has scored 31 points in 39 games in the MHL thanks to his speed, shot, and vision. Like Ivan Kosorenkov, his defensive game may need some work, but he definitely has raw potential. Statistics
Ilya Karpukhin (D)
NHL Combined Rank*: 243 Birthdate and Hometown: Born on July 13, 1998 in Chelyabinsk, Russia Height: 6'1'' Weight: 192 lbs. What the Scouts Are Saying Karpukhin does the little things, like moving the puck and making smart passes. He doesn't score a lot of goals, but he's a valuable defensive defenceman. Statistics
In conclusion, there are numerous prospects that an NHL team should look at before they dismiss them because of the doping scandal. Personally, I think that Kosorenkov, Rubtsov, and Berdin are the best. Comment below what you think.
* Rankings taken from Eldon McDonald's Combined Midterm Rankings.
** Note on the scouting reports: they are not mine. I'm just reporting what other people have seen and written down on the Internet. Of course, I'm not directly copying their work either.
The Kings are the best possession team in the league when leading by a goal. Photo credit: Juan Ocampo, Getty Images.
One thing that's really bugged me about the Bruins this season is their insistency to go into a defensive shell after going ahead by a goal. When leading by one, the Bruins are 29th in goals against and 27th in shots against. The ostensible reason that teams do this is that trying to go on offence results in an unprotected defence. But going on offence does not leave the defence unprotected. "The best defence is a good offence" is a cliche for a reason.
So let's take a look at the correlation between CF60 when a team is leading by one and goals against and expected goals against per 60 minutes.
As you can see, being on offence clearly does not matter when it comes to goals against. Teams should probably stop sitting on a lead and keep playing the way they would if the game was tied. Harvard captain Jimmy Vesey skates over the red line with the puck. Photo credit: Christopher Evans, Boston Herald First of all, sorry I haven't posted. I've had a bit of "blogger's block" lately, but there's more to come.
In the last few days, the Bruins have signed defence prospect Rob O'Gara and center Sean Kuraly to entry-level contracts. Rob O'Gara hasn't scored more than six goals in a college hockey season, though the stay-at-home rearguard's 12 points led Yale defensemen in scoring and managed to become a dependable, 20-minute-per game presence on a Yale team that went 14-5-3 in conference play. O'Gara was sent to Providence on an amateur tryout (ATO) after Yale was knocked out of the national tournament by UMass-Lowell, so it will be interesting to see how he transitions to the pros. Sean Kuraly was acquired in exchange for backup Martin Jones along with a first-round pick (you read that right). Kuraly represented the USA in the 2013 World Juniors and was anointed captain of the Miami-Ohio RedHawks in the 2015-16 season. Unfortunately, Miami-Ohio posted a disappointing 15-18-3 record and was eliminated from the NCHC tournament in the first round. Though his offensive totals aren't exactly dazzling, he could be a steal if the scouts are to be believed about his two-way ability. Like O'Gara, Kuraly is going to Providence on an ATO. Now for the elephant in the room: Jimmy Vesey. Vesey was picked by the Predators in the 2012 Draft and has since developed into a top prospect that can pass, skate, and shoot. However, he has decided that he won't sign with the Predators, despite supposedly telling Predators management he would sign. From that moment on, the whole soap opera played out in the paper. Eventually, the information emerged that Vesey wanted to sign with Boston, a city he has strong ties to. He was born in Massachusetts, and has never played for a team outside of the state. Even his father, Jim, played four games for the Bruins in 1992. However, there are rumours linking him to the Leafs, and as Bruins fans know, when a player says he wants to play in Boston, he doesn't always mean it. Anyway, Vesey was the captain of the Harvard team and was nominated for the 2015 Hobey Baker Award the season before. He scored 24 goals 46 points in 33 games (which was a big slip in production because of an outstanding 2014-15) while only three more of his teammates cracked double digits in goals. Still, Harvard went 14-8-3 and made it all the way to the ECAC final, only to lose to Quinnipiac and lost to Boston College in the first round of the national tourney. If Vesey signs with Boston, it could be a huge coup. The left wing has been a point-per-game player and could seriously help a left wing prospect group whose best players are Jake DeBrusk and Peter Cehlarik (good players, but also players who may be a long way from reaching their ceiling). In conclusion, the Bruins have bolstered their prospect pool by signing O'Gara and Kuraly, and potentially added an important piece in Jimmy Vesey. Well, it turns out "Trader Don" isn't finished trading yet. Zack Phillips, former first-round and current minor league depth player, was traded to the St. Louis Blues for future considerations. What a blockbuster! Phillips cracked 30 goals twice in junior, with 38 goals in his draft year. The Wild brass was sufficiently impressed with his offensive finesse and drafted him in the late first round, signing him to a contract a year later.
Since then, Phillips struggled in the AHL, as he hasn't scored double-digits in minor-league play in two years. Before being traded, Phillips was playing for the Bruins' ECHL affiliate in Atlanta, the Gladiators. He was the only player on the Gladiators with an NHL contract. All of the big names at the trade deadline were traded - except for Loui Eriksson. Instead, Don Sweeney decided to trade draft picks from the 2016 and 2017 Drafts in the 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round, and 5th round, as well as Anthony Camara, a minor-league left wing who hasn't scored a goal all season. Their return was defenceman John-Michael Liles and forward Lee Stempniak. First, let's look at the draft picks. In 2011, Michael Schuckers, an associate professor in statistics at St. Lawrence University, published a paper estimating the value of an NHL draft pick. The probability of one of the picks the Bruins traded away. In his paper, he finds the probability of an NHL draft pick playing more than 200 NHL games by round. In total, the chance that one of the draft picks the Bruins traded away becomes an NHL player is just under 50%. I for one, would not trade away a 50% chance at an NHL player unless the short-term gain compensates for the long-term loss. Speaking of the return, let's take a look at John-Michael Liles. The 35-year-old defenseman has spent 13 seasons in the NHL and is approaching the 800-game mark. Offensively, he's rather average, with 0.68 P60 and 0.14 G60. But interestingly, he'd be a defensive upgrade over one of my favourite players, Colin Miller. Liles has always been labeled a stay at home defenseman, and looking at this WARRIOR chart comparing him to Colin Miller shows it. While Liles is trounced in terms of shot generation and goal generation, he is ahead of Colin Miller in all defensive categories, as well as individual offensive production. Obviously, he or his defensive partner needs to pick up the slack on offense, but paired with the right player (Torey Krug, perhaps?) I could see success. His cap hit of $3,875,000 in my opintion is far too expensive for a simple stay-at-home defenceman, but he becomes a UFA next year and won't handcuff the Bruins long-term.
The other player the Bruins acquired was Lee Stempniak. Stempniak signed with the Devils after agreeing to a professional tryout. In just 63 games, Stempniak has scored 16 goals (his career high is 19 goals in 82 games). His shooting percentage is a few percentage points above his career average, but he still provides useful forward depth. His 49.26 TACF% isn't that great, but he would still be a huge upgrade over Landon Ferraro (40.62 TACF%), Zac Rinaldo (45.98 TACF%), Max Talbot (47.26 TACF%), and Joonas Kemppainen (43.67 TACF%). Like Liles, Stempniak will also become a UFA at the end of this season. But while the players the Bruins traded for could be an upgrade towards the end of the season, there is one big ripple effect that I haven't touched on in this post. The Bruins did not trade Loui Eriksson, the Bruins second-line left wing. According to the recent news from various insiders, the Bruins and Eriksson are still far apart in contract talks. A few days ago, DJ Bean noted that the Bruins offered a contract with a term of three years in December, but that the most recent offer was longer. Loui Eriksson wants a contract longer than three years, but giving him that contract would be potentially disastrous for the Bruins. Here's why. I've discussed how Eriksson could decline in a few years, and if he does, the Bruins would not want a contract like the one Eriksson is requesting on their hands. Three years is more than enough time to see Eriksson's production go down. While it would be hard to guess his salary, I will say that it will probably be above four million dollars. Also, since he has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston**, so a no-trade clause on his next contract wouldn't be unexpected. But if Eriksson's production declines, the Bruins will have an untradeable contract on their hands. He won't be a bad player, but he will be an overpaid player, and that's something the Bruins can't afford right now. Bottom line: the Bruins could have cost themselves by simply doing nothing. * The exact value of the picks was calculated using reverse standings. The Bruins are * Yes, I know that's what everyone says, but players do want stability so I could see how he could be sincere. |
AuthorHello, My name is D1234. I'm a diehard Bruins fan who really likes hockey and hockey stats. Since when I get into something I express my liking for it by researching that something, I started to learn the lingo of "advanced stats", which eventually led to the creation of this site. BlogrollBoston Globe Hockey
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June 2016
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