Alex Ovechkin is good, but he isn't Gretzky good. Nobody is. Photo credit: Rob Carr, Getty Images.
Alex Ovechkin is really, really good. So good, in fact, that a recent edition of Hot Takedown, a podcast at FiveThirtyEight, asks "Is Alex Ovechkin Better Than Wayne Gretzky?" The short answer is, no.
I can say this with reasonable certainty because I've calculated how many standard deviations above average Gretzky was at his goal-scoring peak and I can assure, you it is higher than Ovechkin or Kane.
In 1981-82, Wayne Gretzky scored a record 92 goals in 80 games for the powerhouse Edmonton Oilers. Gretzky was around 1.1 standard deviations above average in shooting percentage and an incredible 3.4 standard deviations above average in shots. Those numbers mean that Gretzky would have fired roughly 205 shots with an 18.5% shooting percentage at this point in the season. That's just below 38 goals. For comparison, Patrick Kane is leading the NHL right now with 30 goals.
While Ovechkin or Kane may be better than Gretzky past his prime, they simply can't measure up to "the Great One" at his prime.
I can say this with reasonable certainty because I've calculated how many standard deviations above average Gretzky was at his goal-scoring peak and I can assure, you it is higher than Ovechkin or Kane.
In 1981-82, Wayne Gretzky scored a record 92 goals in 80 games for the powerhouse Edmonton Oilers. Gretzky was around 1.1 standard deviations above average in shooting percentage and an incredible 3.4 standard deviations above average in shots. Those numbers mean that Gretzky would have fired roughly 205 shots with an 18.5% shooting percentage at this point in the season. That's just below 38 goals. For comparison, Patrick Kane is leading the NHL right now with 30 goals.
While Ovechkin or Kane may be better than Gretzky past his prime, they simply can't measure up to "the Great One" at his prime.