Loui Eriksson, likely 2016 free agent, leads the team in goals with nine. Photo credit: Brian Babineau, NHLI via Getty Images
Fun fact: four players on the active roster for the Bruins will be unrestricted free agents (UFAs) on July 1, 2016* and two more on the injured reserve will have the same fate. These players include Loui Eriksson, who is leading the team in goals with nine, and Torey Krug, who leads Bruins defensemen in assists and points. Though he only has one goal, this is most likely due to colossal bad luck, as his shooting percentage this season is more than four percentage points below his career average.
Today, I'm going to look at all UFAs in the Bruins system, and try to find out whether the Bruins should resign the player in question. I'm excluding RFAs because they never get signed**.
PLEASE MR. SWEENEY, DON'T BE AN IDIOT
These players are making an active, negative contribution to the team and it would be best at this point to ditch them.
Max Talbot, C
Max Talbot? Is he that bad? I mean, he's pretty much going to be a human yo-yo this season, so he'll only play 20, 30 games tops, right? Right. But he's horrible. In the last three seasons, his TACF% in the past three seasons is 48.39%. And is this season, it's 42.16%. His 1.17 P60 is in the bottom 25% of the league and 0.33 G60 is one of the 30 worst in the league since 2013-14. Offensively, he provides next to nothing, possession-wise he is mediocre at best. Not only that, if the Avalanche hadn't retained his salary, the Bruins would have $900,000 of dead cap space on our hands. I say let him go.
Kevan Miller, D
Currently sitting on the injured reserve with an upper-body injury, Miller has been with the Bruins for three seasons, carving out a niche as a bottom-pairing rearguard. Though his P60 is in the bottom 30% of the league, his G60 is actually in the top half of qualifying defensemen (barely, but still). Possession-wise, his 48.33 TACF% shows that there are holes in his game. He and his teammates need to muster up more offense - his TACF60 is just 50.67. Overall, Miller is an easily replaceable defenseman who's not chipping in enough on offense or defense.
Chris Kelly, C
After a leg injury that will cost him six to eight months of playing time, Kelly's status with the Bruins is in limbo. Kelly's 1.28 P60 is just OK, while his TACF% of 49.40% is fairly meh. While he has value as a defensive forward with a solid 51.35 TACA60, but his injury appears to be the final nail in the coffin for the unspectacular center. With centers like Alex Khokhlachev (hopefully) and Seth Griffith waiting in the wings, it wouldn't make much sense to resign him.
WHY NOT?
These players are making little to no contribution, or at least are only mildly useful. An upgrade may be available, but signing them will not actively damage the team.
Chris Breen, D
26-year-old Chris Breen is an AHL veteran, with 311 minor-league games under his belt and 42 points to go with it. The gargantuan (6'7'') defenseman was signed by the Bruins in the 2014 offseason after playing nine games in "the Show" for the Calgary Flames, notching two assists. Breen is the quintessential bubble player and may or may not earn a call-up to the big club (with Tommy Cross, Chris Casto, Linus Arnesson and Matt Irwin as other potential options, his chances are surprisingly good). Either way, Breen is a good player to have, just in case.
Brandon DeFazio, LW
DeFazio, like Breen, is an AHL veteran, with 304 AHL games on his resume. DeFazio has never been a point-per-game player but has reliably contributed to various minor-league teams since he was signed by the Islanders in 2012. Since then, his production has been trending upwards and he broke the 20-goal mark in the 2014-15 AHL season, earning himself a two-game cup of coffee. DeFazio provides good minor-league insurance and it can't hurt to have him in the system.
Matt Irwin, D
Yes, I know everyone hates Matt Irwin. Yes, I know he had a horrible first game and that there's a reason he's in Providence. But it's still one game, people. In the 'A', he's been scoring consistently with nine points in 18 games should have more than two goals, as he is leading the Baby Bruins in shots (with 47). One bad game shouldn't end a player's career, and I'd argue that Matt Irwin may deserve another chance.
Jeremy Smith, G
The 26-year-old 'tender has been the most productive Bruin goalie in the minors by far, despite a .908 save percentage. After starting off the season with a stellar October (he didn't make fewer than 36 saves in any game he played during that month), he's followed it up with a mediocre November. Smith's play has been subject to an anomalous trend where the fewer shots he faces, the worse he seems to play. The good news is, when he's on his game, he can steal two points away from the opponent. Smith will be a useful piece for the Bruins, especially if Jonas Gustavsson isn't resigned.
EXTENSION REQUIRED
These players are either making a solid contribution to the big club or look as if they have the potential to do so.
Joonas Kemppainen, C
Sure, his 0.86 P60 isn't very good (and neither is 50.46 TACF%), but that's what happens with a 42.9 OZS%. Kemppainen has done decently in his first NHL season and has lived up to the expectations placed on him by fans and management.
But there is a very small sample size to work with as regards to Kemppainen's play in the NHL. Back home in Finland, Kemppainen had achieved success with 160 points in 464 games. While that doesn't sound like much, Kemppainen had a breakout season in 2013-14, with a career-high of 17 goals that was good for second on his team. While his goal totals went down the next season, he still posted career highs in assists (with 21) and points (with 32).
Internationally, Kemppainen has represented Finland four times in the prestigious Euro Hockey Tour, typically used as a way for national teams to scout players for the World Championships and prepare for upcoming tournaments. The 2014-15 season would see Kemppainen make his World Championships debut. Though Finland lost in the first round, Kemppainen played the best hockey of his career with nine points in eight games. Kemppainen has a significant resume in Europe and is worth at least some money. Then again, my answer may change by the end of the season.
Jonas Gustavsson, G
While I initially wasn't thrilled with Gustavsson's PTO, he has performed very well with the Bruins with a .937 save percentage at 5v5. After bombing out with the Leafs and Red Wings, Gustavsson seems to have found a home in Boston. His latest showing featured 32 saves as the B's won 3-2 despite being outshot 34-22. As with Kemppainen, the answer may change at the end of the season, especially since Gustavsson's save percentage of .920 is a full 19 percentage points above his previous career average of .901. Still, if he keeps up the pace, he is definitely worth resigning.
Loui Eriksson, RW
Before the season, Loui Eriksson was expected to settle into the third-line right wing slot, along with Chris Kelly and Brett Connolly or maybe some other guy. Oh, how times change. The arrival of Jimmy Hayes shook things up for the bottom six, but Eriksson has earned a top-six spot with 20 points in 22 games (and a 1.73 P60 shows his increased production is not just because of ice time).
But what if Loui Eriksson is just benefitting from a heaping dose of luck? I don't think so. Though 74 points*** is a lot more than 84 points in the last two seasons combined, it's actually pretty consistent with his rate of production back in Dallas. I'll give two reasons why his production declined in
2013-14 and 2014-15. In 2012-13, Eriksson suffered a concussion that no doubt threw him off his game, while the next season saw a drastic drop in defensive zone starts. In my opinion, Eriksson is simply returning to his normal pace.
Quite simply, the Bruins need Loui Eriksson and should use any remotely reasonable means to get him to come back to Boston.
* Barring a midseason contract extension, of course.
** This is why I'm not worried that 4 of 8 active Bruins defensemen will be RFAs in the offseason.
*** Which is how many points Loui Eriksson will score at the season's end if his points per game remains constant.
Today, I'm going to look at all UFAs in the Bruins system, and try to find out whether the Bruins should resign the player in question. I'm excluding RFAs because they never get signed**.
PLEASE MR. SWEENEY, DON'T BE AN IDIOT
These players are making an active, negative contribution to the team and it would be best at this point to ditch them.
Max Talbot, C
Max Talbot? Is he that bad? I mean, he's pretty much going to be a human yo-yo this season, so he'll only play 20, 30 games tops, right? Right. But he's horrible. In the last three seasons, his TACF% in the past three seasons is 48.39%. And is this season, it's 42.16%. His 1.17 P60 is in the bottom 25% of the league and 0.33 G60 is one of the 30 worst in the league since 2013-14. Offensively, he provides next to nothing, possession-wise he is mediocre at best. Not only that, if the Avalanche hadn't retained his salary, the Bruins would have $900,000 of dead cap space on our hands. I say let him go.
Kevan Miller, D
Currently sitting on the injured reserve with an upper-body injury, Miller has been with the Bruins for three seasons, carving out a niche as a bottom-pairing rearguard. Though his P60 is in the bottom 30% of the league, his G60 is actually in the top half of qualifying defensemen (barely, but still). Possession-wise, his 48.33 TACF% shows that there are holes in his game. He and his teammates need to muster up more offense - his TACF60 is just 50.67. Overall, Miller is an easily replaceable defenseman who's not chipping in enough on offense or defense.
Chris Kelly, C
After a leg injury that will cost him six to eight months of playing time, Kelly's status with the Bruins is in limbo. Kelly's 1.28 P60 is just OK, while his TACF% of 49.40% is fairly meh. While he has value as a defensive forward with a solid 51.35 TACA60, but his injury appears to be the final nail in the coffin for the unspectacular center. With centers like Alex Khokhlachev (hopefully) and Seth Griffith waiting in the wings, it wouldn't make much sense to resign him.
WHY NOT?
These players are making little to no contribution, or at least are only mildly useful. An upgrade may be available, but signing them will not actively damage the team.
Chris Breen, D
26-year-old Chris Breen is an AHL veteran, with 311 minor-league games under his belt and 42 points to go with it. The gargantuan (6'7'') defenseman was signed by the Bruins in the 2014 offseason after playing nine games in "the Show" for the Calgary Flames, notching two assists. Breen is the quintessential bubble player and may or may not earn a call-up to the big club (with Tommy Cross, Chris Casto, Linus Arnesson and Matt Irwin as other potential options, his chances are surprisingly good). Either way, Breen is a good player to have, just in case.
Brandon DeFazio, LW
DeFazio, like Breen, is an AHL veteran, with 304 AHL games on his resume. DeFazio has never been a point-per-game player but has reliably contributed to various minor-league teams since he was signed by the Islanders in 2012. Since then, his production has been trending upwards and he broke the 20-goal mark in the 2014-15 AHL season, earning himself a two-game cup of coffee. DeFazio provides good minor-league insurance and it can't hurt to have him in the system.
Matt Irwin, D
Yes, I know everyone hates Matt Irwin. Yes, I know he had a horrible first game and that there's a reason he's in Providence. But it's still one game, people. In the 'A', he's been scoring consistently with nine points in 18 games should have more than two goals, as he is leading the Baby Bruins in shots (with 47). One bad game shouldn't end a player's career, and I'd argue that Matt Irwin may deserve another chance.
Jeremy Smith, G
The 26-year-old 'tender has been the most productive Bruin goalie in the minors by far, despite a .908 save percentage. After starting off the season with a stellar October (he didn't make fewer than 36 saves in any game he played during that month), he's followed it up with a mediocre November. Smith's play has been subject to an anomalous trend where the fewer shots he faces, the worse he seems to play. The good news is, when he's on his game, he can steal two points away from the opponent. Smith will be a useful piece for the Bruins, especially if Jonas Gustavsson isn't resigned.
EXTENSION REQUIRED
These players are either making a solid contribution to the big club or look as if they have the potential to do so.
Joonas Kemppainen, C
Sure, his 0.86 P60 isn't very good (and neither is 50.46 TACF%), but that's what happens with a 42.9 OZS%. Kemppainen has done decently in his first NHL season and has lived up to the expectations placed on him by fans and management.
But there is a very small sample size to work with as regards to Kemppainen's play in the NHL. Back home in Finland, Kemppainen had achieved success with 160 points in 464 games. While that doesn't sound like much, Kemppainen had a breakout season in 2013-14, with a career-high of 17 goals that was good for second on his team. While his goal totals went down the next season, he still posted career highs in assists (with 21) and points (with 32).
Internationally, Kemppainen has represented Finland four times in the prestigious Euro Hockey Tour, typically used as a way for national teams to scout players for the World Championships and prepare for upcoming tournaments. The 2014-15 season would see Kemppainen make his World Championships debut. Though Finland lost in the first round, Kemppainen played the best hockey of his career with nine points in eight games. Kemppainen has a significant resume in Europe and is worth at least some money. Then again, my answer may change by the end of the season.
Jonas Gustavsson, G
While I initially wasn't thrilled with Gustavsson's PTO, he has performed very well with the Bruins with a .937 save percentage at 5v5. After bombing out with the Leafs and Red Wings, Gustavsson seems to have found a home in Boston. His latest showing featured 32 saves as the B's won 3-2 despite being outshot 34-22. As with Kemppainen, the answer may change at the end of the season, especially since Gustavsson's save percentage of .920 is a full 19 percentage points above his previous career average of .901. Still, if he keeps up the pace, he is definitely worth resigning.
Loui Eriksson, RW
Before the season, Loui Eriksson was expected to settle into the third-line right wing slot, along with Chris Kelly and Brett Connolly or maybe some other guy. Oh, how times change. The arrival of Jimmy Hayes shook things up for the bottom six, but Eriksson has earned a top-six spot with 20 points in 22 games (and a 1.73 P60 shows his increased production is not just because of ice time).
But what if Loui Eriksson is just benefitting from a heaping dose of luck? I don't think so. Though 74 points*** is a lot more than 84 points in the last two seasons combined, it's actually pretty consistent with his rate of production back in Dallas. I'll give two reasons why his production declined in
2013-14 and 2014-15. In 2012-13, Eriksson suffered a concussion that no doubt threw him off his game, while the next season saw a drastic drop in defensive zone starts. In my opinion, Eriksson is simply returning to his normal pace.
Quite simply, the Bruins need Loui Eriksson and should use any remotely reasonable means to get him to come back to Boston.
* Barring a midseason contract extension, of course.
** This is why I'm not worried that 4 of 8 active Bruins defensemen will be RFAs in the offseason.
*** Which is how many points Loui Eriksson will score at the season's end if his points per game remains constant.