*** WARNING: LONG POST AHEAD ***
I've been wanting to write this for a while now, but every time I tried it, it just fell through somehow. Anyway, I've finally gotten off my butt to write about what I would do if the Bruins fired Don Sweeney and hired me instead.
Forwards
Returning Bruins: Patrice Bergeron, Brett Connolly, Loui Eriksson, Chris Kelly, David Krejci, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Max Talbot
Significant* Acquisitions: Matt Beleskey, Brandon DeFazio, Jimmy Hayes, Joonas Kemppainen, Zac Rinaldo
Signifcant* Losses: Milan Lucic, Marc Savard's contract, Reilly Smith, Carl Soderberg
In the System: Brian Ferlin, Seth Griffith, Alexander Khokhlachev
Injuries: none
Projected Forward Lines
Marchand-Krejci-Pastrnak
Hayes-Bergeron-Eriksson
Beleskey-Spooner-Connolly
Kelly-Talbot-Rinaldo
Notes
Why is the $3.8-million-dollar, 22-goal-scoring Matt Beleskey on the third line? Well, as discussed before, Beleskey's shooting percentage of 15.2% was very, very high, especially for his standards. He scored about ten more goals than we could have expected him to given his previous career average shooting percentage of 8.2%. Based on his career averages in shots and shooting percentage, we can expect about 14 goals, and if we take away his outlier 2014-15 season, we can expect about 12 goals. Although, Beleskey's shooting percentage may be more robust than it seems . . . but we'll see.
Aside from that, the only thing that should jump out is the weakness of our fourth-line. Chris Kelly's Teammate-Adjusted CF% is just 50.9, which seems OK, but on a team who fired 51.7% of shot attempts at the opponent's net, is not an impressive number. Kelly's defense is fine - his CA60 of 49.22 placed a solid 42nd among 262 NHL forwards last year - but his team simply doesn't generate enough shots to break even in relative terms - while he is the second-best defensive forward on his team in terms of CA60, he is the second-worst on his team in offensive production in terms of CF60. The only player worse is Maxime Talbot, who played much, much worse teammates (with a TMCF% of 44.0% to Kelly's 50.7%).
This brings us to the second player on the fourth line, Maxime Talbot, who played with the Avalanche (a very poor possession team) for most of the year before being shipped to the Bruins at the trade deadline. He played just 18 games for the Bruins and spent most of his time with the Avalanche - who had the 2nd-worst CF% in the entire league with a dismal 43.2%. Maybe we should cut the guy some slack. Or maybe not.
His teammate-adjusted CF% is 49.96% - still the worst on the team among forwards. His score-adjusted CF% rel. for the season was -1.3%, and, in a small sample size for the Bruins, an absolutely horrible -6.6%. Max Talbot does not fit in with the Bruins.
And finally, we have Zac Rinaldo. Rinaldo and his score-adjusted CF% rel. of -5.5 is taking his talents to Boston, where he is apparently viewed as a combo of the best attributes of the Merlot Line in its prime. The actual quote is as follows:
The Bruins clearly see Rinaldo as a combination of Shawn Thornton’s fighting, Gregory Campbell’s shot blocking and Daniel Paille’s penalty killing. This is demonstrably false. Rinaldo blocked less than half as many shots as Campbell did in 2014-15, He fought just five times and lost three times**. and, as for penalty killing, the fact that he spent 12 seconds per game on the PK last year should tell you all you need to know about Rinaldo's penalty killing.
As you can see, none of the members of our fourth line are capable of playing well at the NHL level and will probably do very little aside from put us on the penalty kill when they're on ice.
Aside from the fourth line, our lineup looks just dandy. The real problems are on defense . . .
Defensemen
Returning Bruins: Zdeno Chara, Torey Krug, Adam McQuaid, Dennis Seidenberg, Zach Trotman
Significant* Acquisitions: Matt Irwin, Colin Miller
Significant* Losses: Dougie Hamilton, Matt Bartkowski
In the System: Colin Miller, Joe Morrow
Injuries: Kevan Miller
Projected Defensive Pairings
Chara-Trotman
Seidenberg-McQuaid
Krug-Irwin
Notes
While it doesn't look like there's much shakeup in the Bruins lineup by just looking at the significant acquisitions and losses, but there is, mostly due to the loss of a single player - Dougie Hamilton. Most hockey fans know the story. Dougie Hamilton was playing top minutes in every situation and formed a successful top pairing for the Bruins with Zdeno Chara. He led Bruins defensemen in scoring with 42 points, and led the Bruins in score-adjusted FF% rel. with +3.31 and TAFF%, with 53.44%. And he was only 22.
The future looked bright, except for one thing: his contract. After 2014-15, his contract would run out, and Hamilton would become an RFA. Normally, this wouldn't be a problem, but the rumors of an offer sheet from the Edmonton Oilers prompted newly minted GM Don Sweeney to trade Hamilton to the Flames for . . . draft picks, most notably a 2015 1st-rounder. What did they do with this first-rounder? They picked Zachary Senyshyn, a prospect who was projected anywhere from the early second round to the middle of the third. Senyshyn's main attributes is his skating and puckhandling skills, but he still has a lot to learn in terms of his shot, his accuracy, and his defense.
The loss of Dougie Hamilton screwed up the Bruins defense, forcing coach Claude Julien to put a slow, injury-riddled Dennis Seidenberg (the proud owner of a 45.08 TAFF%) and Adam McQuaid, a third-pairing man who can barely crack it on the second pairing in a role where they will play 15-20 minutes a night.
The top pairing looks fine, with longtime Bruins captain Zdeno Chara being paired with 24-year-old rookie Zach Trotman, who was taken with literally the last pick of the draft in 2010 and formed an extremely strong pairing with Chara while in the NHL while Dougie Hamilton was down with an upper body injury. This year, Trotman's contract transitions to a one-way contract, meaning he will be making NHL money, even in the minors, which provides some incentive for the Bruins management to keep him up.
Offensive defensemen Torey Krug and Matt Irwin round out the defense corps for the Bruins. Both flourished in sheltered roles on the second and third pairings (both led or tied for the lead on their team in offensive zone starts). They both placed second on their respective team in points per 60 minutes (Krug with 0.94 P60 and Irwin with 1.12), though Krug has better possession numbers (with a TAFF% of 52.74% compared with Irwin's TAFF% of 50.59%). These players should see at least some time on the power play and against an opponent's second or third lines.
Of course, there's one more player I need to talk about: Colin Miller. Acquired from the LA Kings as part of the Lucic trade, Miller was a key part of an AHL championship with the Manchester Monarchs, the minor-league affiliate of the Kings. After being passed over in his first year of draft eligibility, Miller has grown into a reliable defenseman who could contribute on offense and defense.
Goalies
Returning Bruin: Tuukka Rask
Significant* Acquisitions: none
Significant* Losses: Niklas Svedberg
In the System: Zane McIntyre, Malcolm Subban, Jeremy Smith
Injuries: none
Projected Starter: Tuukka Rask
Not much has happened at the goaltending position. Starter Tuukka Rask will again be trusted to carry the load for the Bruins after he put in a valiant effort in the Bruins' failed attempt to make the playoffs. In 2014-15, Rask started a career high 67 games and played three more times in relief.
But while things were going well for Rask (at least on an individual level) thing weren't so good for his number 2, Niklas Svedberg. Last season, Svedberg was frustrated at how few games he played and couldn't seem to find a rhythm in 2014-15. So, when his contract ran out that offseason, he left the Bruins and signed with Salavat Yulaev Ufa of the KHL.
This created a void in the backup position for the Bruins, with three possible backups competing for one spot. It's really anyone's game, with young Malcom Subban and 26-year-old AHL journeyman Jeremy Smith as the frontrunners and college prospect Zane McIntyre as a wild-card.
Subban would be the logical choice, but a dreadful performance in his NHL debut (three goals on six shots against the Blues) has dampened the enthusiasm the Bruins management once had about him. Jeremy Smith is the cheapest of the possible backups, with a cap hit of $600K, and might be the frontrunner in the eyes of the Bruins front office. Smith had a career year in the AHL with a save percentage of .933, but has yet to play in the NHL. McIntyre, who was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award, has a slim possibility of jumping straight from college puck to the NHL level.
Nobody really knows who's going to get the backup position, so a lot will depend on how these puckstoppers perform in the preseason.
Who Would I Get Rid Of?
Now for the important question: who would I try to get rid of? Rinaldo and Talbot are obvious choices, as these fourth liners are possession blackholes who don't do anything but take penalties. Add in the fact that they don't have any restrictions on trades or movement and a cheap salary and these players are extremely movable. I'd trade them for a conditional 7th if that's what it took.
Unrealistically, I'd probably want to trade Chris Kelly, Dennis Seidenberg, and Adam McQuaid. Basically, I'd like to trade our fourth line and second pairing. Unfortunately, all of these players have NTCs or NMCs and a cap hit above two and a half million dollars (McQuaid is the cheapest at $2.75 million dollars), making them near impossible to move. If there was any way I could, though, I would move them in a heartbeat.
Who Would I Add?
Well. In a realistic scenario, where I get rid of just Rinaldo and Talbot, the Bruins would have about $6.5 million dollars in cap space. This would be enough room to sign a free agent such as Cody Franson to bolster the second pairing. I might not do it though, for one reason: cap space. Even if there is enough room to sign Franson, signing him leaves the Bruins with just $400,000 in cap space (according to Matt Cane's estimate). Even if he signs for "Jeff Petry money", or $5.5 million dollars per year, he still leaves us with just $1 million dollars in cap space, not enough to improve other areas of the team.
Cody Franson is going to have to take a pay cut to be in Boston, realistically. But in an unrealistic scenario, where Kelly, Rinaldo, Talbot, Seidenberg and McQuaid are all traded for picks . . .
Unloading Kelly, Rinaldo, Talbot, Seidenberg and McQuaid, leaves the Bruins with a whopping $12.6 million dollars in cap space - just above the cap floor. Signing Franson at $6 million dollars per year solves the cap floor problem and leaves the Bruins with $6.6 million dollars in cap space. Marek Zidlicky could be signed at $3 million (once again using Matt Cane's estimate), which pretty much solves the Bruins' problems on defense and leaves the Bruins with $3.6 million dollars in cap space.
With the remaining cap space, might bring in a guy like Sean Bergenheim, who was a strong TAFF% of 53.39% (fourth on his team among forwards) with an expected cap hit of around $2 million dollars to round out the lineup and improve the fourth line. Think about it: a fourth line of Bergenheim-Khokhlachev-Griffith would be one of the best fourth lines in the league.
But, sadly, it is the unrealistic scenario, so odds are that's not going to happen. The Bruins are going to have to make the most of what they have - for now, at least.
* I use the term 'significant' loosely in this post.
** Just for the record, I think that Zac Rinaldo fighting less is probably a good thing. But the point is to show that the Bruins management is misguided in acquiring Rinaldo for whatever role they might put him in.
I've been wanting to write this for a while now, but every time I tried it, it just fell through somehow. Anyway, I've finally gotten off my butt to write about what I would do if the Bruins fired Don Sweeney and hired me instead.
Forwards
Returning Bruins: Patrice Bergeron, Brett Connolly, Loui Eriksson, Chris Kelly, David Krejci, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Max Talbot
Significant* Acquisitions: Matt Beleskey, Brandon DeFazio, Jimmy Hayes, Joonas Kemppainen, Zac Rinaldo
Signifcant* Losses: Milan Lucic, Marc Savard's contract, Reilly Smith, Carl Soderberg
In the System: Brian Ferlin, Seth Griffith, Alexander Khokhlachev
Injuries: none
Projected Forward Lines
Marchand-Krejci-Pastrnak
Hayes-Bergeron-Eriksson
Beleskey-Spooner-Connolly
Kelly-Talbot-Rinaldo
Notes
Why is the $3.8-million-dollar, 22-goal-scoring Matt Beleskey on the third line? Well, as discussed before, Beleskey's shooting percentage of 15.2% was very, very high, especially for his standards. He scored about ten more goals than we could have expected him to given his previous career average shooting percentage of 8.2%. Based on his career averages in shots and shooting percentage, we can expect about 14 goals, and if we take away his outlier 2014-15 season, we can expect about 12 goals. Although, Beleskey's shooting percentage may be more robust than it seems . . . but we'll see.
Aside from that, the only thing that should jump out is the weakness of our fourth-line. Chris Kelly's Teammate-Adjusted CF% is just 50.9, which seems OK, but on a team who fired 51.7% of shot attempts at the opponent's net, is not an impressive number. Kelly's defense is fine - his CA60 of 49.22 placed a solid 42nd among 262 NHL forwards last year - but his team simply doesn't generate enough shots to break even in relative terms - while he is the second-best defensive forward on his team in terms of CA60, he is the second-worst on his team in offensive production in terms of CF60. The only player worse is Maxime Talbot, who played much, much worse teammates (with a TMCF% of 44.0% to Kelly's 50.7%).
This brings us to the second player on the fourth line, Maxime Talbot, who played with the Avalanche (a very poor possession team) for most of the year before being shipped to the Bruins at the trade deadline. He played just 18 games for the Bruins and spent most of his time with the Avalanche - who had the 2nd-worst CF% in the entire league with a dismal 43.2%. Maybe we should cut the guy some slack. Or maybe not.
His teammate-adjusted CF% is 49.96% - still the worst on the team among forwards. His score-adjusted CF% rel. for the season was -1.3%, and, in a small sample size for the Bruins, an absolutely horrible -6.6%. Max Talbot does not fit in with the Bruins.
And finally, we have Zac Rinaldo. Rinaldo and his score-adjusted CF% rel. of -5.5 is taking his talents to Boston, where he is apparently viewed as a combo of the best attributes of the Merlot Line in its prime. The actual quote is as follows:
The Bruins clearly see Rinaldo as a combination of Shawn Thornton’s fighting, Gregory Campbell’s shot blocking and Daniel Paille’s penalty killing. This is demonstrably false. Rinaldo blocked less than half as many shots as Campbell did in 2014-15, He fought just five times and lost three times**. and, as for penalty killing, the fact that he spent 12 seconds per game on the PK last year should tell you all you need to know about Rinaldo's penalty killing.
As you can see, none of the members of our fourth line are capable of playing well at the NHL level and will probably do very little aside from put us on the penalty kill when they're on ice.
Aside from the fourth line, our lineup looks just dandy. The real problems are on defense . . .
Defensemen
Returning Bruins: Zdeno Chara, Torey Krug, Adam McQuaid, Dennis Seidenberg, Zach Trotman
Significant* Acquisitions: Matt Irwin, Colin Miller
Significant* Losses: Dougie Hamilton, Matt Bartkowski
In the System: Colin Miller, Joe Morrow
Injuries: Kevan Miller
Projected Defensive Pairings
Chara-Trotman
Seidenberg-McQuaid
Krug-Irwin
Notes
While it doesn't look like there's much shakeup in the Bruins lineup by just looking at the significant acquisitions and losses, but there is, mostly due to the loss of a single player - Dougie Hamilton. Most hockey fans know the story. Dougie Hamilton was playing top minutes in every situation and formed a successful top pairing for the Bruins with Zdeno Chara. He led Bruins defensemen in scoring with 42 points, and led the Bruins in score-adjusted FF% rel. with +3.31 and TAFF%, with 53.44%. And he was only 22.
The future looked bright, except for one thing: his contract. After 2014-15, his contract would run out, and Hamilton would become an RFA. Normally, this wouldn't be a problem, but the rumors of an offer sheet from the Edmonton Oilers prompted newly minted GM Don Sweeney to trade Hamilton to the Flames for . . . draft picks, most notably a 2015 1st-rounder. What did they do with this first-rounder? They picked Zachary Senyshyn, a prospect who was projected anywhere from the early second round to the middle of the third. Senyshyn's main attributes is his skating and puckhandling skills, but he still has a lot to learn in terms of his shot, his accuracy, and his defense.
The loss of Dougie Hamilton screwed up the Bruins defense, forcing coach Claude Julien to put a slow, injury-riddled Dennis Seidenberg (the proud owner of a 45.08 TAFF%) and Adam McQuaid, a third-pairing man who can barely crack it on the second pairing in a role where they will play 15-20 minutes a night.
The top pairing looks fine, with longtime Bruins captain Zdeno Chara being paired with 24-year-old rookie Zach Trotman, who was taken with literally the last pick of the draft in 2010 and formed an extremely strong pairing with Chara while in the NHL while Dougie Hamilton was down with an upper body injury. This year, Trotman's contract transitions to a one-way contract, meaning he will be making NHL money, even in the minors, which provides some incentive for the Bruins management to keep him up.
Offensive defensemen Torey Krug and Matt Irwin round out the defense corps for the Bruins. Both flourished in sheltered roles on the second and third pairings (both led or tied for the lead on their team in offensive zone starts). They both placed second on their respective team in points per 60 minutes (Krug with 0.94 P60 and Irwin with 1.12), though Krug has better possession numbers (with a TAFF% of 52.74% compared with Irwin's TAFF% of 50.59%). These players should see at least some time on the power play and against an opponent's second or third lines.
Of course, there's one more player I need to talk about: Colin Miller. Acquired from the LA Kings as part of the Lucic trade, Miller was a key part of an AHL championship with the Manchester Monarchs, the minor-league affiliate of the Kings. After being passed over in his first year of draft eligibility, Miller has grown into a reliable defenseman who could contribute on offense and defense.
Goalies
Returning Bruin: Tuukka Rask
Significant* Acquisitions: none
Significant* Losses: Niklas Svedberg
In the System: Zane McIntyre, Malcolm Subban, Jeremy Smith
Injuries: none
Projected Starter: Tuukka Rask
Not much has happened at the goaltending position. Starter Tuukka Rask will again be trusted to carry the load for the Bruins after he put in a valiant effort in the Bruins' failed attempt to make the playoffs. In 2014-15, Rask started a career high 67 games and played three more times in relief.
But while things were going well for Rask (at least on an individual level) thing weren't so good for his number 2, Niklas Svedberg. Last season, Svedberg was frustrated at how few games he played and couldn't seem to find a rhythm in 2014-15. So, when his contract ran out that offseason, he left the Bruins and signed with Salavat Yulaev Ufa of the KHL.
This created a void in the backup position for the Bruins, with three possible backups competing for one spot. It's really anyone's game, with young Malcom Subban and 26-year-old AHL journeyman Jeremy Smith as the frontrunners and college prospect Zane McIntyre as a wild-card.
Subban would be the logical choice, but a dreadful performance in his NHL debut (three goals on six shots against the Blues) has dampened the enthusiasm the Bruins management once had about him. Jeremy Smith is the cheapest of the possible backups, with a cap hit of $600K, and might be the frontrunner in the eyes of the Bruins front office. Smith had a career year in the AHL with a save percentage of .933, but has yet to play in the NHL. McIntyre, who was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award, has a slim possibility of jumping straight from college puck to the NHL level.
Nobody really knows who's going to get the backup position, so a lot will depend on how these puckstoppers perform in the preseason.
Who Would I Get Rid Of?
Now for the important question: who would I try to get rid of? Rinaldo and Talbot are obvious choices, as these fourth liners are possession blackholes who don't do anything but take penalties. Add in the fact that they don't have any restrictions on trades or movement and a cheap salary and these players are extremely movable. I'd trade them for a conditional 7th if that's what it took.
Unrealistically, I'd probably want to trade Chris Kelly, Dennis Seidenberg, and Adam McQuaid. Basically, I'd like to trade our fourth line and second pairing. Unfortunately, all of these players have NTCs or NMCs and a cap hit above two and a half million dollars (McQuaid is the cheapest at $2.75 million dollars), making them near impossible to move. If there was any way I could, though, I would move them in a heartbeat.
Who Would I Add?
Well. In a realistic scenario, where I get rid of just Rinaldo and Talbot, the Bruins would have about $6.5 million dollars in cap space. This would be enough room to sign a free agent such as Cody Franson to bolster the second pairing. I might not do it though, for one reason: cap space. Even if there is enough room to sign Franson, signing him leaves the Bruins with just $400,000 in cap space (according to Matt Cane's estimate). Even if he signs for "Jeff Petry money", or $5.5 million dollars per year, he still leaves us with just $1 million dollars in cap space, not enough to improve other areas of the team.
Cody Franson is going to have to take a pay cut to be in Boston, realistically. But in an unrealistic scenario, where Kelly, Rinaldo, Talbot, Seidenberg and McQuaid are all traded for picks . . .
Unloading Kelly, Rinaldo, Talbot, Seidenberg and McQuaid, leaves the Bruins with a whopping $12.6 million dollars in cap space - just above the cap floor. Signing Franson at $6 million dollars per year solves the cap floor problem and leaves the Bruins with $6.6 million dollars in cap space. Marek Zidlicky could be signed at $3 million (once again using Matt Cane's estimate), which pretty much solves the Bruins' problems on defense and leaves the Bruins with $3.6 million dollars in cap space.
With the remaining cap space, might bring in a guy like Sean Bergenheim, who was a strong TAFF% of 53.39% (fourth on his team among forwards) with an expected cap hit of around $2 million dollars to round out the lineup and improve the fourth line. Think about it: a fourth line of Bergenheim-Khokhlachev-Griffith would be one of the best fourth lines in the league.
But, sadly, it is the unrealistic scenario, so odds are that's not going to happen. The Bruins are going to have to make the most of what they have - for now, at least.
* I use the term 'significant' loosely in this post.
** Just for the record, I think that Zac Rinaldo fighting less is probably a good thing. But the point is to show that the Bruins management is misguided in acquiring Rinaldo for whatever role they might put him in.