Ryan Bourque delivers the check that could wreck the Bruins defense for the month of September. Photo creidt: James Guillory, USA TODAY Sports
Man, wouldn't this be a great time to have Dougie Hamilton or Johnny Boychuk? I know hindsight is 20/20, and admittedly I thought the Boychuk deal was necessary if unfortunate. If only we traded Seidenberg! It's okay though, now he's injured and sucking away cap space like a black hole because he might not qualify for long-term injured reserve (and even that doesn't help unless you're squeezed up right against the cap). Geez, what happened?
Anyway, this is about the impact of Zdeno Chara's injury, though it might be uncertain because Claude Julien refuses to tell us anything for some reason, simply saying that Chara is day-to-day, which we knew already. But first, take a look at two possible Bruins defenses for opening night against Winnipeg
Anyway, this is about the impact of Zdeno Chara's injury, though it might be uncertain because Claude Julien refuses to tell us anything for some reason, simply saying that Chara is day-to-day, which we knew already. But first, take a look at two possible Bruins defenses for opening night against Winnipeg
Chara-Trotman Krug-McQuaid Irwin-C. Miller/Morrow K. Miller | Krug-Trotman Irwin-McQuaid C. Miller-Morrow/K. Miller |
The first is the Bruins defense if Chara can recover by opening night, which he might. If he's day-to-day with what appears to be a minor injury (at least, according to the scant info the Bruins brass has given us), he probably will recover in 11 days. But if the injury is more serious than feared, the Bruins defense is going down the toilet, real quick.
A Krug-Trotman first pairing might not be as bad as you think (prepare to be bombared with statistics). They haven't spent a lot of time together (just 98 minutes according to Puckalytics' Super WOWY), when they did play together, they thrived in sheltered settings, with a 53.8 CF% on a team with a CF% of 52.8%. Torey Krug is capable of facing opponents' top lines, with the second-highest opponent-adjusted Fenwick%* of qualifying Bruins defensemen since he made his debut in 2011-12, with an OAFF% of 53.3%, third out of qualifying Bruins defensemen. He's also had the least help from teammates, with the worst TMFF% of qualifying Bruins D-men since 2011-12.
He has the second-highest TAFF% of qualifying Bruins D-men since 2011-12, behind only Zdeno Chara. His FA60 is a solid 84th out of 262 qualifying rearguards around the league since his debut season, which should alleviate concerns about defense. After all, the best defense is a good offense, and Torey Krug possesses a good offense, coming 31st out of 262 D-men, in the top 15% of league defensemen. In points per 60 minutes, Krug is in the 90th percentile in both points per 60 and goals per 60 since his debut season, and comes 4th of all qualifying D-men in goals per 60, behind forward/defenseman Brent Burns, offensive wonder Erik Karlsson, and explosive rookie John Klingberg.
As for Trotman, there's not much to say about Trotman, due to a limited sample size. But in that limited sample size, he managed to make the already great Zdeno Chara better and come second among Bruins defensemen in assists per 60 minutes in 2014-15. All signs point to big things for the last-overall pick of the 2010 Draft.
After that our defense can best be summed up as "eh". Matt Irwin is a third-pairing offensive specialist, and he filled that role very well with the San Jose Sharks. But Irwin shouldn't be seeing 17-20 minutes a night. He's played against the 16th-worst opponents in the league last season. He also has a TAFF% of 50.6%, which isn't bad, but I'd rather have him on my third pairing. Offensively, he's pretty much a poor man's Torey Krug, with more points per 60 but also higher zone starts and worse overall possession numbers. Again, not bad, but not second-pairing material.
Adam McQuaid is just a bad defenseman. There's no putting it lightly. Offensively, he's mediocre, with a P60 of just 0.61 - in the lower 40% of all qualifying D-men since his debut, and also the second-lowest P60 of all qualifying Bruins D-men since his debut (Kevan Miller takes the dubious cake for that one). Defensively, he's pretty good, finishing in the top 100 qualifying D-men in FA60, but again, his offense is his Achilles heel with just 38.42 FF60, or just 225th among qualifying defensemen. His teammate-adjusted Fenwick For% is a lousy 48.14%.
It's hard to say anything about the third pairing, mostly due to lack of sample size. The most experienced is Kevan Miller with 88 NHL games under his belt. Miller scored an anemic 0.55 goals per 60 minutes and has a TAFF% of just 48.91% - but hey, it's still better than Adam McQuaid
Morrow has 15 NHL games, so its hard to say anything meaningful about him. In his 15 games, he managed a goal and no assists, or just 0.26 points per 60 minutes. In the AHL, 14 goals and 46 assists in 155 career AHL games suggest he can produce at least some offense.
Colin Miller has yet to make his NHL debut. However, he enjoyed a breakout year down in the 'A', with an AHL All-Star Game invite, a Calder Cup championship and a win in the AHL Hardest Shot Competition to show for it - as well as 19 goals and 33 assists in 76 games, enough for second in the AHL in points among defensemen and tied for first in the AHL in goals among defensemen. Also, a Miller-Miller third pairing would be pretty great.
In conclusion, we really need Chara to recover by opening day.
* Opponent-adjusted Fenwick%, or OAFF% is calculated just like Teammate-Adjusted Fenwick% (TAFF%), but subsitutes the weighted average of teammate FF% with the weighted average off opponent FF%
A Krug-Trotman first pairing might not be as bad as you think (prepare to be bombared with statistics). They haven't spent a lot of time together (just 98 minutes according to Puckalytics' Super WOWY), when they did play together, they thrived in sheltered settings, with a 53.8 CF% on a team with a CF% of 52.8%. Torey Krug is capable of facing opponents' top lines, with the second-highest opponent-adjusted Fenwick%* of qualifying Bruins defensemen since he made his debut in 2011-12, with an OAFF% of 53.3%, third out of qualifying Bruins defensemen. He's also had the least help from teammates, with the worst TMFF% of qualifying Bruins D-men since 2011-12.
He has the second-highest TAFF% of qualifying Bruins D-men since 2011-12, behind only Zdeno Chara. His FA60 is a solid 84th out of 262 qualifying rearguards around the league since his debut season, which should alleviate concerns about defense. After all, the best defense is a good offense, and Torey Krug possesses a good offense, coming 31st out of 262 D-men, in the top 15% of league defensemen. In points per 60 minutes, Krug is in the 90th percentile in both points per 60 and goals per 60 since his debut season, and comes 4th of all qualifying D-men in goals per 60, behind forward/defenseman Brent Burns, offensive wonder Erik Karlsson, and explosive rookie John Klingberg.
As for Trotman, there's not much to say about Trotman, due to a limited sample size. But in that limited sample size, he managed to make the already great Zdeno Chara better and come second among Bruins defensemen in assists per 60 minutes in 2014-15. All signs point to big things for the last-overall pick of the 2010 Draft.
After that our defense can best be summed up as "eh". Matt Irwin is a third-pairing offensive specialist, and he filled that role very well with the San Jose Sharks. But Irwin shouldn't be seeing 17-20 minutes a night. He's played against the 16th-worst opponents in the league last season. He also has a TAFF% of 50.6%, which isn't bad, but I'd rather have him on my third pairing. Offensively, he's pretty much a poor man's Torey Krug, with more points per 60 but also higher zone starts and worse overall possession numbers. Again, not bad, but not second-pairing material.
Adam McQuaid is just a bad defenseman. There's no putting it lightly. Offensively, he's mediocre, with a P60 of just 0.61 - in the lower 40% of all qualifying D-men since his debut, and also the second-lowest P60 of all qualifying Bruins D-men since his debut (Kevan Miller takes the dubious cake for that one). Defensively, he's pretty good, finishing in the top 100 qualifying D-men in FA60, but again, his offense is his Achilles heel with just 38.42 FF60, or just 225th among qualifying defensemen. His teammate-adjusted Fenwick For% is a lousy 48.14%.
It's hard to say anything about the third pairing, mostly due to lack of sample size. The most experienced is Kevan Miller with 88 NHL games under his belt. Miller scored an anemic 0.55 goals per 60 minutes and has a TAFF% of just 48.91% - but hey, it's still better than Adam McQuaid
Morrow has 15 NHL games, so its hard to say anything meaningful about him. In his 15 games, he managed a goal and no assists, or just 0.26 points per 60 minutes. In the AHL, 14 goals and 46 assists in 155 career AHL games suggest he can produce at least some offense.
Colin Miller has yet to make his NHL debut. However, he enjoyed a breakout year down in the 'A', with an AHL All-Star Game invite, a Calder Cup championship and a win in the AHL Hardest Shot Competition to show for it - as well as 19 goals and 33 assists in 76 games, enough for second in the AHL in points among defensemen and tied for first in the AHL in goals among defensemen. Also, a Miller-Miller third pairing would be pretty great.
In conclusion, we really need Chara to recover by opening day.
* Opponent-adjusted Fenwick%, or OAFF% is calculated just like Teammate-Adjusted Fenwick% (TAFF%), but subsitutes the weighted average of teammate FF% with the weighted average off opponent FF%